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澳儲行鷹派立場提振澳幣,澳幣/美元漲至0.6650上方

    Lubomir Tassev 2024-08-19 10:47:29

    澳幣/美元


    週一,澳幣/美元開盤漲至0.6670附近。整個市場的風險偏好基調以及市場對聯準會(Fed)即將降息的預期升溫使得美元承壓,並進一步提振了澳幣。本週的焦點將集中在澳儲行董事會8月會議的紀要和聯準會主席鮑威爾的演講。


    美國消費者信心指數在連續五個月的下滑後首次出現回升。8月份密西根大學消費者信心指數的初值由66.4上升至67.8,表現超出預期的66.9。然而,美國7月新屋開工年化月率卻出現大幅下降,下降幅度達到-6.8%,相較6月的1.1%有所回落,7月新屋開工年化總數減少至123.8萬套;此外,營建許可在6月增長3.9%之後,7月又下降了4.0%。


    市場對於聯準會急於降息的預期過於樂觀,但這取決於即將釋出的數據。芝加哥商品交易所聯準會觀察工具顯示,交易商已經將聯準會在9月會議上降息25個基點的概率預估為接近76%。而在一週前,市場對於聯準會實施更大幅度降息,即降息50個基點的概率超過50%。聯準會主席鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾研討會上的演講可能會為聯準會的寬鬆政策提供一些線索。如果官員發表鴿派言論,可能會對美元產生一定的賣壓。


    另一方面,澳儲行鷹派立場繼續提振澳元(AUD)。澳儲行長布洛克指出,該央行仍專注於通膨的潛在上行風險,不考慮在短期內下調利率。布洛克說,根據董事會目前所了解的情況,預計近期內不會降息。

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