On June 22, the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee unanimously passed a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but the final decision still needs to be made by Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The waterway carries about one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas every day. If it is really blocked, it will cause a heavy blow to the global energy supply.

Although the move is still at the level of political deterrence, the market has already felt a strong signal. Reuters reported that US Secretary of State Rubio has called on China to pressure Iran to avoid closing the channel, warning that such a move would be "economic suicide" and would trigger a strong response from the United States and its allies. Brent crude oil has jumped more than 3.9% to $80 a barrel, and the market is worried that short-term oil prices may break through the $100-130 mark.

If the strait is indeed closed, it will lead to an instant reduction in global crude oil supply, and the surge in oil prices will accelerate inflation and curb economic growth. Oxford Economics simulation shows that if oil prices break through $130, global GDP may be damaged by 0.8 percentage points. In addition, the lengthening of alternative routes for traditional energy and the increase in ship insurance costs will further push up transportation costs and terminal commodity prices.

Three major indicators that investors should pay attention to

• Will Iran's Supreme National Security Council finally block the Strait? If it enters the implementation stage, oil prices and natural gas products may continue to rise, and safe-haven assets will once again become the focus.

• The political and military response of the United States and its allies: including whether to send a fleet to intervene, will affect risk premiums and market sentiment.

• OPEC+ output adjustments and US shale oil trends: If OPEC increases production or the United States accelerates inventory replenishment, it will become the key to balancing the market.